Browsing by Author "Erciyas, Okhan"

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    Turkey and Cyprus: a poliheuristic analysis of decisions during the crises of 1964, 1967, and 1974
    (Oxford University Press, 2020) Özdamar, Özgür; Erciyas, Okhan
    The Cyprus problem is one of the most protracted and complex conflicts in the world. This article uses poliheuristic (PH) theory to analyze Turkey's decision-making during the Cyprus crises of 1964, 1967, and 1974. We utilize the PH model (Mintz 1993, 2004) and its method to systematically examine the decision-making process and outcomes during the three crises. We present primary evidence from governmental archives and secondary from media sources. The two hypotheses derived from the PH literature are supported by evidence. Results confirm Turkish decision-makers employed two-stage decision-making during each crisis. In the first stage, Turkish leaders followed the noncompensatory rule and eliminated options that could incur losses. In the second stage, their calculations were more in line with expected utility maximization. Implications of the case study in terms of PH model, foreign policy analysis, and international relations theory are discussed in the conclusion.
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    Turkish foreign policy towards the Cyprus crises of 1964, 1967, and 1974 : A poliheuristic perspective
    (2014) Erciyas, Okhan
    This thesis analyzes Turkish foreign policy towards Cyprus crises of 1964, 1967, and 1974. It summarizes the Cyprus question in the 20th Century. The thesis examines the Cyprus crises and Turkey’s ultimate decisions in each crisis by ‘poliheuristic’ decision making model. The decision making processes of Turkish leaders will be analyzed. By comparing the crises, this thesis studies how Turkish decision makers decided to use force in 1974, whereas refrained from using force against Cyprus in the previous crises of 1964 and 1967. The thesis argues that during each Cyprus crisis, Turkish decision makers framed some of the policy options as ‘noncompensatory’ which resulted in the decision not to intervene in Cyprus during the 1964 and 1967 crises, and resulted in the intervention decision during the 1974 crisis.