Akaike and the No Miracle Argument for scientific realism

Date
2023-08-03
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Source Title
Canadian Journal of Philosophy
Print ISSN
0045-5091
Electronic ISSN
1911-0820
Publisher
Cambridge University Press
Volume
53
Issue
1
Pages
21 - 37
Language
English
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Abstract

The “No Miracle Argument” for scientific realism contends that the only plausible explanation for the predictive success of scientific theories is their truthlikeness, but doesn’t specify what ‘truthlikeness’ means. I argue that if we understand ‘truthlikeness’ in terms of Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, the resulting realist thesis (RKL) is a plausible explanation for science’s success. Still, RKL probably falls short of the realist’s ideal. I argue, however, that the strongest version of realism that the argument can plausibly establish is RKL. The realist needs another argument for establishing a stronger realist thesis.

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Published Version (Please cite this version)