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      Antecedents and effects of trust in forecasting advice

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      Author(s)
      Goodwin, P.
      Gönül, M. S.
      Önkal D.
      Date
      2013
      Source Title
      International Journal of Forecasting
      Print ISSN
      0169-2070
      Electronic ISSN
      1872-8200
      Publisher
      Elsevier
      Volume
      29
      Issue
      2
      Pages
      354 - 366
      Language
      English
      Type
      Article
      Item Usage Stats
      103
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      Abstract
      Forecasting support systems (FSSs) have little value if users distrust the information and advice that they offer. Two experiments were used to investigate: (i) factors that influence the levels of users’ stated trust in advice provided by an FSS, when this advice is provided in the form of interval forecasts, (ii) the extent to which stated trust is associated with users’ modifications of the provided forecasts, and (iii) the consequences of these modifications for the calibration of the interval forecasts. Stated trust was influenced by the levels of noise in time series and whether a trend was present but was unaffected by the presence or absence of point forecasts. It was also higher when the intervals were framed as ‘best-case/worst-case’ forecasts and when the FSS provided explanations. Absence of trust was associated with a tendency to narrow the provided prediction intervals, which reduced their calibration.
      Keywords
      Judgmental forecasting
      Advice
      Stated trust
      Adjusting forecasts
      Permalink
      http://hdl.handle.net/11693/49146
      Published Version (Please cite this version)
      https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2012.08.001
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      • Department of Management 579
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