Antecedents and effects of trust in forecasting advice
Date
2013Source Title
International Journal of Forecasting
Print ISSN
0169-2070
Electronic ISSN
1872-8200
Publisher
Elsevier
Volume
29
Issue
2
Pages
354 - 366
Language
English
Type
ArticleItem Usage Stats
103
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Abstract
Forecasting support systems (FSSs) have little value if users distrust the information and advice that they offer. Two experiments were used to investigate: (i) factors that influence the levels of users’ stated trust in advice provided by an FSS, when this advice is provided in the form of interval forecasts, (ii) the extent to which stated trust is associated with users’ modifications of the provided forecasts, and (iii) the consequences of these modifications for the calibration of the interval forecasts. Stated trust was influenced by the levels of noise in time series and whether a trend was present but was unaffected by the presence or absence of point forecasts. It was also higher when the intervals were framed as ‘best-case/worst-case’ forecasts and when the FSS provided explanations. Absence of trust was associated with a tendency to narrow the provided prediction intervals, which reduced their calibration.