Effects of trend strength and direction on performance and consistency in judgmental exchange rate forecasting

Date
2013
Authors
Thomson, M. E.
Pollock, A. C.
Gönül, M. S.
Önkal D.
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Source Title
International Journal of Forecasting
Print ISSN
0169-2070
Electronic ISSN
1872-8200
Publisher
Elsevier
Volume
29
Issue
2
Pages
337 - 353
Language
English
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Abstract

Using real financial data, this study examines the influence of trend direction and strength on judgmental exchange rate forecasting performance and consistency. Participants generated forecasts for each of 20 series. Half of the participants also answered two additional questions regarding their perceptions about the strength and direction of the trend present in each of the series under consideration. The performance on ascending trends was found to be superior to that on descending trends, and the performance on intermediate trends was found to be superior to that on strong trends. Furthermore, the group whose attention was drawn to the direction and strength of each trend via the additional questions performed better on some aspects of the task than did their “no-additional questions” counterparts. Consistency was generally poor, with ascending trends being perceived as being stronger than descending trends. The results are discussed in terms of their implications for the use and design of forecasting support systems.

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