An adaptive bayesian replacement policy with minimal repair

Date
2002
Authors
Gürler, Ü.
Dayanık, S.
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Source Title
Operations Research
Print ISSN
0030-364X
Electronic ISSN
1526-5463
Publisher
Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)
Volume
50
Issue
3
Pages
552 - 558
Language
English
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Abstract

In this study, an adaptive Bayesian decision model is developed to determine the optimal replacement age for the systems maintained according to a general age-replacement policy. It is assumed that when a failure occurs, it is either critical with probability p or noncritical with probability1−p, independently. A maintenance policy is considered where the noncritical failures are corrected with minimal repair and the system is replaced either at the first critical failure or at age , whichever occurs first. The aim is to find the optimal value of that minimizes the expected cost per unit time. Two adaptive Bayesian procedures that utilize different levels of information are proposed for sequentiallyupdating the optimal replacement times. Posterior density/mass functions of the related variables are derived when the time to failure for the system can be expressed as a Weibull random variable. Some simulation results are also presented for illustration purposes.

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