Determinants of workers' remittances : evidence from Turkey
Aydaş, Osman Tuncay
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In this thesis, macroeconomic determinants of workers’ remittances are analyzed for the case of Turkey, using annual data over the period 1964-2001. Using two different models, in contrast to some previous analyses, we find that macroeconomic variables and variables related with economic and political risk in the country of origin significantly impact on remittance inflows. According to empirical results, remittance flows are highly responsive to the differential between the official and black market exchange rates. In both models, we observe that the difference between the black market and official rate of exchange has a significant negative impact on the inflow of remittances. Domestic rate of inflation also has a significant negative impact on remittances, indicating a negative correlation between economic instability in home country and remittance inflows. Results also reveal that the interest rate differential between the country of origin and host country has a significant positive impact on remittances. Periods of military administration in Turkey also have a significant negative impact on remittance inflows, indicating a negative correlation between political instability in home country and remittance inflows. Hence, contrary to some previous studies, our results, based on the evidence from Turkey, suggest that governments of labor-exporting countries can influence remittance inflows through inflation, exchange rate and interest rate policies.