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dc.contributor.authorÖnkal, D.en_US
dc.contributor.authorMuradoǧlu G.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2016-02-08T10:52:23Z
dc.date.available2016-02-08T10:52:23Z
dc.date.issued1995en_US
dc.identifier.issn1692070en_US
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11693/25923
dc.description.abstractThis paper reports the results of an experiment in stock-price forecasting that investigated the effects of feedback on various dimensions of probability forecasting accuracy. Three types of feedback were used: (1) simple outcome feedback, (2) outcome feedback presented in the task format, and (3) performance feedback in the form of an overall accuracy score in addition to detailed calibration information. While calibration improved for all the feedback groups, forecasters' skill was found to improve only for the task-formated outcome feedback and performance feedback groups (but not for the simple outcome feedback group). Finally, the forecasters in the performance feedback group also improved their mean slope and mean probability scores, an effect not observed in the other feedback groups. It is suggested that, in a dynamic environment like the stock market, probability forecasting offers distinct advantages by providing an important channel of communication between the forecasters and the users of financial information. © 1995.en_US
dc.language.isoEnglishen_US
dc.source.titleInternational Journal of Forecastingen_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0169-2070(94)00572-Ten_US
dc.subjectCalibrationen_US
dc.subjectJudgmental forecastingen_US
dc.subjectOutcome feedbacken_US
dc.subjectPerformance feedbacken_US
dc.subjectProbability forecastingen_US
dc.subjectStock-price forecastingen_US
dc.titleEffects of feedback on probabilistic forecasts of stock pricesen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.departmentBilkent Universityen_US
dc.citation.spage307en_US
dc.citation.epage319en_US
dc.citation.volumeNumber11en_US
dc.citation.issueNumber2en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/0169-2070(94)00572-Ten_US


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