Effects of feedback on probabilistic forecasts of stock prices

Date
1995
Authors
Önkal D.
Muradoğlu, G.
Editor(s)
Advisor
Supervisor
Co-Advisor
Co-Supervisor
Instructor
Source Title
International Journal of Forecasting
Print ISSN
0169-2070
Electronic ISSN
1872-8200
Publisher
Volume
11
Issue
2
Pages
307 - 319
Language
English
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Series
Abstract

This paper reports the results of an experiment in stock-price forecasting that investigated the effects of feedback on various dimensions of probability forecasting accuracy. Three types of feedback were used: (1) simple outcome feedback, (2) outcome feedback presented in the task format, and (3) performance feedback in the form of an overall accuracy score in addition to detailed calibration information. While calibration improved for all the feedback groups, forecasters' skill was found to improve only for the task-formated outcome feedback and performance feedback groups (but not for the simple outcome feedback group). Finally, the forecasters in the performance feedback group also improved their mean slope and mean probability scores, an effect not observed in the other feedback groups. It is suggested that, in a dynamic environment like the stock market, probability forecasting offers distinct advantages by providing an important channel of communication between the forecasters and the users of financial information.

Course
Other identifiers
Book Title
Citation
Published Version (Please cite this version)