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      Provider-user differences in perceived usefulness of forecasting formats

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      Author(s)
      Önkal D.
      Bolger, F.
      Date
      2004
      Source Title
      Omega
      Print ISSN
      0305-0483
      Electronic ISSN
      1873-5274
      Publisher
      Pergamon Press
      Volume
      32
      Issue
      1
      Pages
      31 - 39
      Language
      English
      Type
      Article
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      Abstract
      This paper aims to examine potential differences in perceived usefulness of various forecasting formats from the perspectives of providers and users of predictions. Experimental procedure consists of asking participants to assume the role of forecast providers and to construct forecasts using different formats, followed by requesting usefulness ratings for these formats (Phase 1). Usefulness of the formats are rated again in hindsight after receiving individualized performance feedback (Phase 2). In the ensuing role switch exercise, given new series and external predictions, participants are required to assign usefulness ratings as forecast users (Phase 3). In the last phase, participants are given performance feedback and asked to rate the usefulness in hindsight as users of predictions (Phase 4). Results reveal that regardless of the forecasting role, 95% prediction intervals are considered to be the most useful format, followed by directional predictions, 50% interval forecasts, and lastly, point forecasts. Finally, for all formats and for both roles, usefulness in hindsight is found to be lower than usefulness prior to performance feedback presentation.
      Keywords
      Forecast format
      Forecast provider
      Forecast user
      Forecasting
      Judgment
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      http://hdl.handle.net/11693/24328
      Published Version (Please cite this version)
      http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.omega.2003.09.007
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      • Department of Management 639
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