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      Feedback-labelling synergies in judgmental stock price forecasting

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      Author(s)
      Goodwin, P.
      Önkal-Atay, D.
      Thomson, M. E.
      Pollock, A. C.
      Macaulay, A.
      Date
      2004
      Source Title
      Decision Support Systems
      Print ISSN
      0167-9236
      Electronic ISSN
      1873-5797
      Publisher
      Elsevier
      Volume
      37
      Issue
      1
      Pages
      175 - 186
      Language
      English
      Type
      Article
      Item Usage Stats
      182
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      Abstract
      Research has suggested that outcome feedback is less effective than other forms of feedback in promoting learning by users of decision support systems. However, if circumstances can be identified where the effectiveness of outcome feedback can be improved, this offers considerable advantages, given its lower computational demands, ease of understanding and immediacy. An experiment in stock price forecasting was used to compare the effectiveness of outcome and performance feedback: (i) when different forms of probability forecast were required, and (ii) with and without the presence of contextual information provided as labels. For interval forecasts, the effectiveness of outcome feedback came close to that of performance feedback, as long as labels were provided. For directional probability forecasts, outcome feedback was not effective, even if labels were supplied. Implications are discussed and future research directions are suggested.
      Keywords
      Calibration
      Contextual information
      Judgment
      Stock price
      Correlation methods
      Data reduction
      Feedback
      Forecasting
      Industrial economics
      Industrial research
      Probability
      Decision support systems
      Permalink
      http://hdl.handle.net/11693/24302
      Published Version (Please cite this version)
      http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0167-9236(03)00002-2
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