Feedback-labelling synergies in judgmental stock price forecasting
Date
2004Source Title
Decision Support Systems
Print ISSN
0167-9236
Electronic ISSN
1873-5797
Publisher
Elsevier
Volume
37
Issue
1
Pages
175 - 186
Language
English
Type
ArticleItem Usage Stats
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162
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Abstract
Research has suggested that outcome feedback is less effective than other forms of feedback in promoting learning by users of decision support systems. However, if circumstances can be identified where the effectiveness of outcome feedback can be improved, this offers considerable advantages, given its lower computational demands, ease of understanding and immediacy. An experiment in stock price forecasting was used to compare the effectiveness of outcome and performance feedback: (i) when different forms of probability forecast were required, and (ii) with and without the presence of contextual information provided as labels. For interval forecasts, the effectiveness of outcome feedback came close to that of performance feedback, as long as labels were provided. For directional probability forecasts, outcome feedback was not effective, even if labels were supplied. Implications are discussed and future research directions are suggested.
Keywords
CalibrationContextual information
Judgment
Stock price
Correlation methods
Data reduction
Feedback
Forecasting
Industrial economics
Industrial research
Probability
Decision support systems