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      • Department of International Relations
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      Projections for the geopolitical economy of oil after war in Iraq

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      Author
      Williams, P. A.
      Date
      2006
      Source Title
      Futures
      Print ISSN
      0016-3287
      Publisher
      Pergamon Press
      Volume
      38
      Issue
      9
      Pages
      1074 - 1088
      Language
      English
      Type
      Article
      Item Usage Stats
      410
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      Abstract
      How are events surrounding the latest Iraq war shaping the future global political economy of oil? The saliency of Iraq's oil resources suggests a trend towards intensified great-power competition to dominate energy-rich provinces and transportation corridors. Yet, the nature of the oil trade, Iraq's insurrection, and Sino-American economic interdependence indicate barriers to unilateral attempts to control energy supplies. Based on examination of the Iraq conflict's unintended stimulus to terrorism and to China's search for foreign oil supplies, this paper assesses three possible scenarios: 'multiple energy insecurity' (great-power competition and violent non-state reaction); 'mutual energy securitisation' (inter-state collusion against non-state resource claimants); and 'multiple energy security' (great-power curtailment of geographically expansive energy consumption). It finds that the increasing problems associated with the first two alternatives are inducing decision-makers to contemplate policy options consistent with the third scenario.
      Keywords
      Future prospect
      Geopolitics
      Global economy
      Oil supply
      Oil trade
      Political economy
      Asia
      Eurasia
      Iraq
      Middle East
      Permalink
      http://hdl.handle.net/11693/23668
      Published Version (Please cite this version)
      http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2006.02.012
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