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dc.contributor.authorPollock, A.C.en_US
dc.contributor.authorMacaulay, A.en_US
dc.contributor.authorThomson, M.E.en_US
dc.contributor.authorGönül, M.S.en_US
dc.contributor.authorÖnkal, D.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2016-02-08T09:55:37Z
dc.date.available2016-02-08T09:55:37Z
dc.date.issued2010en_US
dc.identifier.issn17558913
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11693/22107
dc.description.abstractThe current paper aims to examine strategic predictions (with forecast horizons greater than six months) via the empirical probability (EP) technique. This technique was proposed initially to examine short-term tactical predictions (with forecast horizons less than three months), as set out in Pollock et al. (2005). The proposed procedure is based on the hypothesis that changes in logarithms of daily exchange rates follow a normal distribution over short horizons (of 10 to 30 days), but longer term forecast evaluation requires consideration of cumulative parameters consistent with changing means and standard deviations arising from primary and secondary trends. It is shown that ex-post EPs can be obtained for any predictive horizon above 30 days (e.g., 180 days) by using a combination of shorter (e.g., 20-day) Student t distributions. The procedure is illustrated using daily Euro/USD series from 4 January 1999 to 29 January 2008 to evaluate a set of Euro/USD directional probability predictions. © 2010 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.en_US
dc.language.isoEnglishen_US
dc.source.titleInternational Journal of Applied Management Scienceen_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1504/IJAMS.2010.033569en_US
dc.subjectApplied management scienceen_US
dc.subjectDirectional probability predictionen_US
dc.subjectExchange rateen_US
dc.subjectForecasten_US
dc.subjectJudgementen_US
dc.titleEvaluating strategic directional probability predictions of exchange ratesen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.departmentFaculty of Business Administrationen_US
dc.citation.spage282en_US
dc.citation.epage304en_US
dc.citation.volumeNumber2en_US
dc.citation.issueNumber3en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1504/IJAMS.2010.033569en_US


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