Comparison of original EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II and STS risk models in a Turkish cardiac surgical cohort
Author
Kunt, A.G.
Kurtcephe, M.
Hidiroglu, M.
Cetin L.
Kucuker, A.
Bakuy V.
Ruchan Akar, A.
Sener, E.
Date
2013Source Title
Interactive Cardiovascular and Thoracic Surgery
Print ISSN
15699293
Volume
16
Issue
5
Pages
625 - 629
Language
English
Type
ArticleItem Usage Stats
152
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views
81
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downloads
Abstract
OBJECTIVESThe aim of this study was to compare additive and logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE), EuroSCORE II and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) models in calculating mortality risk in a Turkish cardiac surgical population.METHODSThe current patient population consisted of 428 patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) between 2004 and 2012, extracted from the TurkoSCORE database. Observed and predicted mortalities were compared for the additive/logistic EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II and STS risk calculator. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) values were calculated for these models to compare predictive power.RESULTSThe mean patient age was 74.5 ± 3.9 years at the time of surgery, and 35.0% were female. For the entire cohort, actual hospital mortality was 7.9% (n = 34; 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.4-10.5). However, the additive EuroSCORE-predicted mortality was 6.4% (P = 0.23 vs observed; 95% CI 6.2-6.6), logistic EuroSCORE-predicted mortality was 7.9% (P = 0.98 vs observed; 95% CI 7.3-8.6), EuroSCORE II- predicted mortality was 1.7% (P = 0.00 vs observed; 95% CI 1.6-1.8) and STS predicted mortality was 5.8% (P = 0.10 vs observed; 95% CI 5.4-6.2). The mean predictive performance of the analysed models for the entire cohort was fair, with 0.7 (95% CI 0.60-0.79). AUC values for additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II and STS risk calculator were 0.70 (95% CI 0.60-0.79), 0.70 (95% CI 0.59-0.80), 0.72 (95% CI 0.62-0.81) and 0.62 (95% CI 0.51-0.73), respectively.CONCLUSIONSEuroSCORE II significantly underestimated mortality risk for Turkish cardiac patients, whereas additive and logistic EuroSCORE and STS risk calculators were well calibrated. © 2013 The Author 2013.
Keywords
Coronary artery bypass graftingEuroSCORE
Mortality
Risk prediction model
Society of Thoracic Surgeons risk calculator
aged
article
cardiovascular mortality
clinical practice
cohort analysis
controlled study
coronary artery bypass graft
EuroSCORE
EuroSCORE II
female
human
intermethod comparison
major clinical study
male
outcome assessment
population research
priority journal
prospective study
rating scale
receiver operating characteristic
risk assessment
Society of Thoracic Surgeons model
Aged
Algorithms
Area Under Curve
Coronary Artery Bypass
Decision Support Techniques
Female
Humans
Logistic Models
Male
Reproducibility of Results
Risk Assessment
Risk Factors
ROC Curve
Time Factors
Treatment Outcome
Turkey
Permalink
http://hdl.handle.net/11693/20985Published Version (Please cite this version)
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/icvts/ivt022Collections
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