Effects of feedback on financial forecasting
Author(s)
Advisor
Önkal, DilekDate
1996Publisher
Bilkent University
Language
English
Type
ThesisItem Usage Stats
177
views
views
40
downloads
downloads
Abstract
The objective of this study is to examine the effects o f feedback on financial forecasting. In
particular, the effects o f simple outcome feedback and cahbration feedback as a type of
perfonuance feedback on the accuracy of probabilistic forecasts of stock pi iccs and market
indices in dichotomous format are analyzed. The study is conducted on subjects comprised
of undergraduate and graduate students from the Faculty of Business Administration at
Bilkent University. The results indicate that feedback, especially calibration feedback, has a
considerable effect on the performance o f forecasters. ImpUcations of these findings for
financial forecasting are discussed and directions for future research are given.
Keywords
Judgmentjudgmental forecasting
probabiUstic forecasting
stock price forecasting
financial forecasting
feedback
calibration feedback
Permalink
http://hdl.handle.net/11693/17840Collections
Related items
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
-
Benefits of forecasting and energy storage in isolated grids with large wind penetration – The case of Sao Vicente
Yuan, S.; Kocaman, A.S.; Modi, V. (Elsevier, 2017)For electric grids that rely primarily on liquid fuel based power generation for energy provision, e.g. one or more diesel gensets, measures to allow a larger fraction of intermittent sources can pay-off since the displaced ... -
Judgmental forecasting
Önkal-Atay, Dilek; Thomson, M. E.; Pollock, A. C. (Wiley, 2004) -
Provider-user differences in perceived usefulness of forecasting formats
Önkal D.; Bolger, F. (Pergamon Press, 2004)This paper aims to examine potential differences in perceived usefulness of various forecasting formats from the perspectives of providers and users of predictions. Experimental procedure consists of asking participants ...