Evaluating probabilistic forecasting accuracy of exchange rates
Author
Öztin, Şule
Advisor
Önkal, Dilek
Date
1996Publisher
Bilkent University
Language
English
Type
ThesisItem Usage Stats
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Abstract
This study aims to explore various dimensions of probabilistic forecasting accuracy.
In particular, the effects of using dichotomous format on the performance of semi-experts’
and novices’ probabilistic forecasts of exchange rates and currencies are examined. Semiexperts
are comprised of banking and finance professionals in the finance sector. Novice
group consists of MBA students from the Faculty of Business Administration at Bilkent
University. The results suggest that the dichotomous format used to elicit the probabilistic
forecasts has a differential effect on the p>erformance of semi-experts and novices.
Implications of these findings for financial forecasting are discussed and directions for
future research are given.