The relationship between stock returns and inflation in Turkey 1987-1993
Author
Tüzün, Osman N.
Advisor
Muradoğlu, Gülnur
Date
1994Publisher
Bilkent University
Language
English
Type
ThesisItem Usage Stats
73
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Abstract
■L'ljis study investigates the existence of a negative relationship
between real stock returns and inflation, which is observed in
other industrialized countries, and a possible explanation for
this relationship, in Turkey. This relationship between stock
returns and inflation is tested in the light of Kama's "Proxy
Effect Hypothesis". This hypothesis suggest that the negative
relation between stock returns and inflation is in fact proxying
for a more fundamental relationship between real stock returns and
real activity.
The empirical investigation of the data revealed that the there is
a significant negative relationship between forecasts of real
activity and inflation. Also the results suggest that there is a
positive, although insignificant, relationship between real stock
returns and real activity. These two results can be combined to
state that the "Proxy Effect Hypothesis" also holds for Turkey.
Keywords
Expected InflationUnexpected Inflation
Stock Returns
Real and Nominal Return
Real Activity Growth Rate
Base Money Growth Rate