Antecedents of conflict termination : an analysis of Egyptian-Israeli (1970-1978) and Syrian-Israeli (1992-1995) conflicts
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Pre-negotiation is a first step towards conflict termination. There are certain factors which either facilitate or hinder the pre-negotiation phase towards conflict terminaton. For this purpose two cases, Pre-Camp David Phase of Egyptian-Israeli and Post Cold War period of the Syrian-Israeli conflicts are analyzed. Variables borrowed from the negotiation literature are used as analytical tools to investigate the cases. The variables are provided with an operational definition and a propositon, on which the cases are investigated. First, the presence of these variables are tested on the cases and then if they are present their effects are coded, based on the inferences from the two conflicts, as whether being a facilitator or a hinderance towards conflict termination. Finally in the conclusion part whether these results are in accordance with the initial propositions are discussed. The Syrian-Israeli case had a frequency of more facilitating factors. The major difference in the two cases is that despite its low frequency in facilitating factors, the Egyptian Israeli conflict ended in a formal agreement whereas the Syrian-Israeli conflict did not. This contradictory outcome is dwelled upon in the conclusion. The major inferences that can be accumulated firom the research are discussed in the conclusion.
Models of Timing
Hurting Stalemate Model
Imminent Mutual Catastrophe Model
Enticiug Opprtunity Model
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