A simulation model for breast cancer epidemiology in Turkey

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Author
Ada, Kumru
Advisor
Savaş, Özlem
Date
2014Publisher
Bilkent University
Language
English
Type
Thesis
Metadata
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http://hdl.handle.net/11693/16867Abstract
Breast cancer has a vital importance in women's life. In the world, breast cancer
incidence and mortality rates are increasing. Considering the burden of disease, in 2012
1.67 million women got breast cancer and about 522,000 women died due to breast
cancer. With this numbers, breast cancer ranks as the most common cancer among
women in the world and the fifth cause of death from cancer overall. Breast cancer has a
high incidence and mortality rates especially in developing countries, where late
diagnosis of cancer is also increasing the disease burden. Lack of knowledge of the exact
causes of breast cancer increases the importance of early detection. The most effective
way of early detection is to apply mammography screening. Screening the accurate
target population increases the rate of early detection of breast cancer and lessens the
economic and health burden of disease. In this study, two simulation models were
constructed in order to analyze the population-based mammography screening programs
for Turkey. The first model was run for 10 years for validation purpose while the second
one was run for the women born in 1980 during their lifetime to analyze several
screening programs. The screening programs differ from each other in terms of
beginning and final age of screening and screening frequency. Costs and health
outcomes of the screening policies were examined and non-dominated screening policies
are determined according to these performance measures.