Where is the anchor now? A Poliheuristic analysis of Turkish foreign policy in the AKP period

Abstract

This thesis analyzes Turkish foreign policy in the AKP (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi- Justice and Development Party) era. It summarizes the post-Cold War Turkish foreign policy literature and proposes a formal model of the AKP leaders’ decision-making process. The thesis asks one methodological and one empirical question. The methodological question aims at proposing a formal and holistic model integrating multi-level and multi-dimensional variables to explain the shifting foreign policy orientations of Turkey in the post-Cold War era. The application of Poliheuristic (PH) decision-making Theory is proposed as an answer to this question. The empirical question aims at explaining the major factors that determined the foreign policy orientation and reorientation of Turkey in the AKP period. The thesis argues that, among others, the prospect of EU membership; the impact of Ahmet Davutoğlu and his arguments on Turkey’s “strategic depth”; the domestic political conditions of the period; and the political background of the AKP have been the major determinants of these shifting foreign policy orientations.