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      The effects of exchange rate fluctuations on economic activity in Turkey

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      Author
      Kandil, M.
      Berument, H.
      Dincer, N. Nergiz
      Date
      2007
      Source Title
      Journal of Asian Economics
      Print ISSN
      1049-0078
      Electronic ISSN
      1873-7927
      Publisher
      Elsevier BV
      Volume
      18
      Issue
      3
      Pages
      466 - 489
      Language
      English
      Type
      Article
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      Abstract
      The paper examines the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on real output, the price level, and the real value of components of aggregate demand in Turkey. The theoretical model decomposes movements in the exchange rate into anticipated and unanticipated components. Unanticipated currency fluctuations help to determine aggregate demand through exports, imports, and the demand for domestic currency, and aggregate supply through the cost of imported intermediate goods and producers' forecasts of relative competitiveness. Anticipated exchange rate appreciation has significant adverse effects, contracting the growth of real output and the demand for investment and exports, while raising price inflation. Unanticipated exchange rate fluctuations have asymmetric effects that highlight the importance of unanticipated depreciation in shrinking output growth and the growth of private consumption and investment, despite an increase in export growth. © 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
      Keywords
      Exchange rate fluctuations
      Policy implications
      Supply and demand channels
      Asymmetry
      Permalink
      http://hdl.handle.net/11693/13308
      Published Version (Please cite this version)
      http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2006.12.015
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