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      Time-varying economic consequences of terrorism in the USA: Evidence from tvp-svar model

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      Author(s)
      Aydın, Halil İbrahim
      Yalçınkaya, Ömer
      Bulut, Emre
      Date
      2022
      Source Title
      Economic Computation and Economic Cybernetics Studies and Research
      Print ISSN
      0424267X
      Publisher
      Bucharest University of Economic Studies
      Volume
      56
      Issue
      2
      Pages
      133 - 148
      Language
      English
      Type
      Article
      Item Usage Stats
      20
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      6
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      Abstract
      This study aims to examine the economic consequences of terrorism (the effects on economic growth and its components) in the U.S. as it suffers from the 9/11 attacks, which is a milestone of literature on the economic consequences of terrorism. We analyze the time-varying effects of terrorism on economic growth and its components in the U.S. for the period of 1970:Q1-2020:Q4 with the nonlinear Time-Varying Parameter Structural Vector Autoregression (TVP-SVAR) model. We construct an index over the values of all measurable dimensions (the number of terrorist incidents, the number of deaths, and the number of injured) of the terrorist acts carried out in the USA. The results show that the time factor is important in revealing the economic consequences of terrorism in the USA. In addition, the effects of terrorism on economic growth and its components have changed significantly in the periods before/after 11/9 and in the short/long term. These results point out the importance of designing security policies that limit the effects of insecurity and uncertainty created by terrorism on the spending decisions of economic actors. © 2022, Bucharest University of Economic Studies. All rights reserved.
      Keywords
      Terrorism
      The Components of Economic Growth
      Terrorism Index
      USA
      TVP-SVAR
      Permalink
      http://hdl.handle.net/11693/111735
      Published Version (Please cite this version)
      https://dx.doi.org/10.24818/18423264/56.2.22.09
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      • Department of Management 639
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