Browsing by Subject "Stock-price forecasting"
Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
Results Per Page
Sort Options
Item Open Access Effects of feedback on probabilistic forecasts of stock prices(1995) Önkal D.; Muradoğlu, G.This paper reports the results of an experiment in stock-price forecasting that investigated the effects of feedback on various dimensions of probability forecasting accuracy. Three types of feedback were used: (1) simple outcome feedback, (2) outcome feedback presented in the task format, and (3) performance feedback in the form of an overall accuracy score in addition to detailed calibration information. While calibration improved for all the feedback groups, forecasters' skill was found to improve only for the task-formated outcome feedback and performance feedback groups (but not for the simple outcome feedback group). Finally, the forecasters in the performance feedback group also improved their mean slope and mean probability scores, an effect not observed in the other feedback groups. It is suggested that, in a dynamic environment like the stock market, probability forecasting offers distinct advantages by providing an important channel of communication between the forecasters and the users of financial information.Item Open Access Effects of task format on probabilistic forecasting of stock prices(Elsevier, 1996) Önkal D.; Muradoğlu, G.This study aims to explore the differences in various dimensions of forecasting accuracy that may result from the task format used to elicit the probabilistic forecasts. In particular, we examine the effects of using multiple-interval and dichotomous formats on the performance of portfolio managers' probabilistic forecasts of stock prices. Probabilistic forecasts of these experts are compared with those provided by semi-experts comprised of other banking professionals trained in portfolio management, as well as with forecasts provided by a novice group. The results suggest that the task format used to elicit the probabilistic forecasts has a differential impact on the performance of experts, semi-experts, and novices. The implications of these findings for financial forecasting are discussed and directions for future research are given.