Now showing items 1-2 of 2

    • Evaluating expert advice in forecasting: Users’ reactions to presumed vs. experienced credibility 

      Önkal, Dilek; Gönül, Mustafa Sinan; Goodwin, Paul; Thomson, Mary; Öz, Esra (Elsevier B.V., 2017)
      In expert knowledge elicitation (EKE) for forecasting, the perceived credibility of an expert is likely to affect the weighting attached to their advice. Four experiments have investigated the extent to which the implicit ...
    • Judgmental forecasts with scenarios and risks 

      Öz, Esra (Bilkent University, 2017-06)
      The purpose of this thesis is to investigate how scenarios and risks influence judgmental forecasts, forecaster’s confidence, and assessments of likelihood of occurrence. In its attempt to identify the impact of scenarios ...