Browsing by Author "Öz, Esra"
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Evaluating expert advice in forecasting: Users’ reactions to presumed vs. experienced credibility
Önkal, Dilek; Gönül, Mustafa Sinan; Goodwin, Paul; Thomson, Mary; Öz, Esra (Elsevier B.V., 2017)In expert knowledge elicitation (EKE) for forecasting, the perceived credibility of an expert is likely to affect the weighting attached to their advice. Four experiments have investigated the extent to which the implicit ... -
Judgmental forecasts with scenarios and risks
Öz, Esra (Bilkent University, 2017-06)The purpose of this thesis is to investigate how scenarios and risks influence judgmental forecasts, forecaster’s confidence, and assessments of likelihood of occurrence. In its attempt to identify the impact of scenarios ...