Thomson, M. E.Önkal-Atay, D.Pollock, A. C.Macaulay, A.2016-02-082016-02-0820030169-2070http://hdl.handle.net/11693/24505An experiment is reported which compares the judgmental forecasting performance of experts and novices using simulated currency series with differing trend strengths. Analyses of directional probability forecasts reveal: (1) significant effects of trend strength on all aspects of predictive performance being studied, with evidence for the hard-easy effect where overconfidence is exhibited on weak (i.e., more difficult) trends, while underconfidence is shown on strong (i.e., less difficult) trends; (2) lower performance of experts on relative accuracy and profitability measures, reflecting experts' resistance to strong trends; (3) better overall performance on negative trends; and (4) superior performance of composite forecasts. Possible explanations are offered for these results and future research directions are outlined.EnglishExchange rateExpertiseForecastingJudgementProbabilityArticle10.1016/S0169-2070(01)00132-71872-8200