Kunt, A.G.Kurtcephe, M.Hidiroglu, M.Cetin L.Kucuker, A.Bakuy V.Ruchan Akar, A.Sener, E.2016-02-082016-02-08201315699293http://hdl.handle.net/11693/20985OBJECTIVESThe aim of this study was to compare additive and logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE), EuroSCORE II and the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) models in calculating mortality risk in a Turkish cardiac surgical population.METHODSThe current patient population consisted of 428 patients who underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) between 2004 and 2012, extracted from the TurkoSCORE database. Observed and predicted mortalities were compared for the additive/logistic EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II and STS risk calculator. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) values were calculated for these models to compare predictive power.RESULTSThe mean patient age was 74.5 ± 3.9 years at the time of surgery, and 35.0% were female. For the entire cohort, actual hospital mortality was 7.9% (n = 34; 95% confidence interval [CI] 5.4-10.5). However, the additive EuroSCORE-predicted mortality was 6.4% (P = 0.23 vs observed; 95% CI 6.2-6.6), logistic EuroSCORE-predicted mortality was 7.9% (P = 0.98 vs observed; 95% CI 7.3-8.6), EuroSCORE II- predicted mortality was 1.7% (P = 0.00 vs observed; 95% CI 1.6-1.8) and STS predicted mortality was 5.8% (P = 0.10 vs observed; 95% CI 5.4-6.2). The mean predictive performance of the analysed models for the entire cohort was fair, with 0.7 (95% CI 0.60-0.79). AUC values for additive EuroSCORE, logistic EuroSCORE, EuroSCORE II and STS risk calculator were 0.70 (95% CI 0.60-0.79), 0.70 (95% CI 0.59-0.80), 0.72 (95% CI 0.62-0.81) and 0.62 (95% CI 0.51-0.73), respectively.CONCLUSIONSEuroSCORE II significantly underestimated mortality risk for Turkish cardiac patients, whereas additive and logistic EuroSCORE and STS risk calculators were well calibrated. © 2013 The Author 2013.EnglishCoronary artery bypass graftingEuroSCOREMortalityRisk prediction modelSociety of Thoracic Surgeons risk calculatoragedarticlecardiovascular mortalityclinical practicecohort analysiscontrolled studycoronary artery bypass graftEuroSCOREEuroSCORE IIfemalehumanintermethod comparisonmajor clinical studymaleoutcome assessmentpopulation researchpriority journalprospective studyrating scalereceiver operating characteristicrisk assessmentSociety of Thoracic Surgeons modelAgedAlgorithmsArea Under CurveCoronary Artery BypassDecision Support TechniquesFemaleHumansLogistic ModelsMaleReproducibility of ResultsRisk AssessmentRisk FactorsROC CurveTime FactorsTreatment OutcomeTurkeyArticle10.1093/icvts/ivt022