Browsing by Subject "Deterrence"

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Open Access
Debates on the future role of nuclear weapons
(2002) Özer, Özkan
Nuclear weapons are the most destructive power of the world, because of their inherited and unique potential capability to destroy the humanity in a matter of minutes. While some experts have perceived them as the main mechanisms of the international stability, peace and security, others have recognized them as the most formidable threat to the humanity. Meanwhile, on part of the US, they had been, throughout the Cold War, the main equalizer against conventional superiority of the Soviet Block and the main instrument of deterring a Soviet nuclear or conventional attack against the US and its allies. Hence, nuclear deterrence became the dominant concept of the Cold War to escape their actual use. However, the nuclear question of “how much is enough to deter enemy,” induced the Soviets and Americans to have huge nuclear arsenals, bigger than the nuclear stockpiles of each other. With the collapse of Soviet Union, this strategic system has transformed. The threat of nuclear war between two superpowers disappeared but new nuclear dangers began to surface within the unpredictable framework of the post-Cold War period. Moreover, the rational behind possessing huge nuclear stockpiles vanished. Because of these imperatives of the post-Cold War era, a number of people including military and civilian leaders, and prominent experts or academics in the US began to articulate their views on the future role of nuclear weapons in the US security policy. While some recommend realizing the goal of total elimination of nuclear weapons as envisaged in the Article VI under NPT and abandonment of nuclear deterrence, others seem to reject making any radical change in the US nuclear strategy. In this context, there are many arguments and counter-arguments capturing substantial support from different groups and consequently a contemporary debate about the US nuclear strategy in the post-Cold War and the ongoing strategic arms reduction process.
Open Access
Deterrence and transnational attacks by domestic terrorist organizations: The case of the PKK attacks in Germany
(2015-07) Özkan, Alperen
Building on the “strategy of terrorism” theory (Neumann and Smith, 2008), and the “opportunity and willingness” pre-theoretical framework (Most and Starr, 1989), this thesis analyzes the relationship between offensive deterrence and transnational attacks by domestic terrorist organizations. Counterterrorism studies have been dealing with the effects of deterrence-based and conciliatory counterterrorism measures on the tactics of terrorist organizations and their willingness to commit violence. Transnational attacks represent a tactical response to offensive deterrence for domestic terrorist organizations at the target response stage of their campaign. This tactical response should be analyzed by looking at opportunity and willingness structures of the terrorist organization. Regarding opportunity, I argue that the size of diaspora population from home country increases the likelihood of transnational attacks at the host country. Secondly, I contend that offensive deterrence in home country increases the willingness of the terrorist organization to perpetrate transnational attacks. In order to test these hypotheses, a case study of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) attacks in Germany is conducted using qualitative data and descriptive statistics. The PKK is investigated throughout disorientation stage during 1984-1992 period, target response stage during 1992-1999 period, and partly overlapping with target response, gaining legitimacy stage after 1995. The variance in the number of the PKK attacks in Germany over these stages is explained using official data on the number of the PKK militants killed per year and an original dataset on military operations against the PKK, assembled by surveying the archives of two major Turkish dailies.
Open Access
Eradicating terrorism in asymmetric conflict: the role and essence of military deterrence
(Routledge, 2020) Coşar, Mustafa; Cafnik-Uludağ, Petra
This study quantitatively and qualitatively analyzes the impact and effectiveness of Turkey’s deterrence-oriented incapacitation effort throughout Turkey’s PKK conflict (1984–2018). By employing vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis, this study quantitatively finds that incapacitation did not reduce PKK violence over the long term and yielded a short-term counterproductive effect. Descriptive analysis asserts that while incapacitation had important mid-term deterring effects, it did not have any sustainable mitigation on the PKK insurrection. This is because, as this study argues, these deterrent impacts were not strategically converted into political gains/results. Considering the latest phase of the conflict, in which Turkey’s intra-state strife has become increasingly regionalized and lately internationalized in military and political terms with the emergence of the Syrian civil war, particularly the rise of the People’s Protection Units (YPG), this study claims that the sole application of an incapacitation-oriented eliminationist approach has become less relevant and less effective. The study suggests that deterrence should be considered within the strategic tit-for-tat game to force/compel the non-state actor to make the conflict more manageable by transforming it in a strategic way, in which strategy of deterrence is to be attached to visionary, long-term, and viable grand strategic political end-states and to be considered within the grand bargaining game.
Open Access
Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction in the Middle East and Turkey's security concerns
(2001) Çağlar, Barış
Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction has always constituted a threat to international peace. International public concern about proliferation of unconventional weapons has rapidly increased since the end of the Cold War. This thesis analyzes the weapons of mass destruction threat against Turkey and its dimensions. It starts with the definition of the concept of threat and the characteristics of weapons of mass destruction. In assessing the threat, deterrence theory is applied. As the theory entails, capabilities and the intentions of possible adversaries are studied. Chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities of Iran, Iraq, Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Israel are examined in detail to figure out whether Turkey confronts weapons of mass destruction threat exposure from its neighbors. Alongside the present procurement efforts of the states as the focal point of the study, past attempts to proliferate and the illegal transfers of weapons technology, equipment and leakage of fissile material are presented