Why does Turkey join or avoid joining U.S.-led military coalitions?
Author
Yegin, Mehmet
Advisor
Çuhadar, Çerağ Esra
Date
2016-09Publisher
Bilkent University
Language
English
Type
ThesisItem Usage Stats
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Abstract
The US frequently forms coalitions to go to war with other countries and Turkey is
one of its many allies asked to contribute to these military coalitions. This thesis aims
to reveal why Turkey joins some US-led military coalitions but chooses not to join
others. In order to achieve this aim, this study identified eight historical points, called
decision occasions, when decisions on whether or not to join coalitions were made,
and analyzed seven independent variables for each of these occasions utilizing
structured, focused comparison analysis. These decision occasions were August 1990,
December 1990 and January 1991 from the Gulf War; November 2001 and January
2002 from the Afghanistan War; March 1, 2003, March 20, 2003 and October 2003
from the Iraq War. The study used paired comparison analysis carried out with
decision-makers involved with each decision occasion, together with 47 elite
interviews conducted with cabinet members, parliamentarians, high level civilian and
military bureaucrats to rank the independent variables. The findings indicate that the
decision-makers regard alliance dependence on the US as a key factor in Turkey’s
joining coalitions; and the actual decision-making process and risk aversion as the main factors in Turkey’s decision not to join coalitions. Legitimacy by UNSC
resolution and NATO decision, along with Turkey’s interest in the region/desire to
enhance influence did not produce any consistent pattern; yet, the decision-makers
viewed them as supportive factors in the context of joining the coalition. Finally, the
seventh variable, military capability is not regarded as influential in any decisions
made to join or not to join a US-led military coalition.