Political business cycles and endogenous elections

Date
1998
Editor(s)
Advisor
Supervisor
Co-Advisor
Co-Supervisor
Instructor
Source Title
Southern Economic Journal
Print ISSN
0038-4038
Electronic ISSN
2325-8012
Publisher
Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, Inc.
Volume
64
Issue
4
Pages
987 - 1000
Language
English
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Series
Abstract

Empirical research of political business cycles (PBCs) may suffer from endogeneity bias when incumbent governments have discretion to call for an early election. Using an instrumental variable (IV) routine on data from Japan and the U.K., we find strong evidence to support the notion that election timing is a function of the economy rather than the macroeconomy being driven by elections as assumed in PBC. In single-equation regressions, no evidence of political cycles are found, but Hausman tests suggest elections are endogenous in our regressions. A monetary cycle in Japan and an inflation cycle in the U.K. are uncovered through IV estimation.

Course
Other identifiers
Book Title
Keywords
Citation
Published Version (Please cite this version)