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dc.contributor.authorThomson, M. E.en_US
dc.contributor.authorÖnkal-Atay, D.en_US
dc.contributor.authorPollock, A. C.en_US
dc.contributor.authorMacaulay, A.en_US
dc.date.accessioned2016-02-08T10:30:22Z
dc.date.available2016-02-08T10:30:22Z
dc.date.issued2003en_US
dc.identifier.issn0169-2070
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/11693/24505
dc.description.abstractAn experiment is reported which compares the judgmental forecasting performance of experts and novices using simulated currency series with differing trend strengths. Analyses of directional probability forecasts reveal: (1) significant effects of trend strength on all aspects of predictive performance being studied, with evidence for the hard-easy effect where overconfidence is exhibited on weak (i.e., more difficult) trends, while underconfidence is shown on strong (i.e., less difficult) trends; (2) lower performance of experts on relative accuracy and profitability measures, reflecting experts' resistance to strong trends; (3) better overall performance on negative trends; and (4) superior performance of composite forecasts. Possible explanations are offered for these results and future research directions are outlined.en_US
dc.language.isoEnglishen_US
dc.source.titleInternational Journal of Forecastingen_US
dc.relation.isversionofhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0169-2070(01)00132-7en_US
dc.subjectExchange rateen_US
dc.subjectExpertiseen_US
dc.subjectForecastingen_US
dc.subjectJudgementen_US
dc.subjectProbabilityen_US
dc.titleThe influence of trend strength on directional probabilistic currency predictionsen_US
dc.typeArticleen_US
dc.departmentDepartment of Managementen_US
dc.citation.spage241en_US
dc.citation.epage256en_US
dc.citation.volumeNumber19en_US
dc.citation.issueNumber2en_US
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/S0169-2070(01)00132-7en_US
dc.publisherElsevieren_US
dc.identifier.eissn1872-8200


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