Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G-7 countries

Date
2005
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Source Title
Physica A : Statistical Mechanics and its Applications
Print ISSN
0378-4371
Electronic ISSN
1873-2119
Publisher
Elsevier BV
Volume
348
Issue
Pages
371 - 379
Language
English
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Abstract

This study examines the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in the G-7 countries for the period from 1957 to 2001. The causality between the inflation and inflation uncertainty is tested by using the Full Information Maximum Likelihood Method with extended lags. Our results suggest that inflation causes inflation uncertainty for all the G-7 countries, while inflation uncertainty causes inflation for Canada, France, Japan, the UK and the US. Furthermore, we find that in four countries (Canada, France, the UK and the US) increased uncertainty lowers inflation, and in only one country (Japan), increased uncertainty raises inflation. © 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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