Recent Submissions

  • Policy performance and the behavior of inflation expectations∗ 

    Gülşen, E.; Kara, Hakan (Federal Reserve Board, 2021-10-28)
    This paper investigates the changing behavior of inflation expectations in response to the macroeconomic and policy environment. Using a panel of professional forecasters covering 13 years of inflation-targeting period in ...
  • A family of nonparametric unit root tests for processes driven by infinite variance innovations 

    Göğebakan, Kemal Çağlar (Walter de Gruyter GmbH, 2021-10-20)
    This paper presents extensions to the family of nonparametric fractional variance ratio (FVR) unit root tests of Nielsen (2009. “A Powerful Test of the Autoregressive Unit Root Hypothesis Based on a Tuning Parameter Free ...
  • Rescaled variance tests for seasonal stationarity 

    Göğebakan, Kemal Çağlar (Walter de Gruyter GmbH, 2021-07-02)
    This paper introduces rescaled variance [V/S] tests for seasonal stationarity. The V/S statistic is designed by Giraitis, L., P. Kokoszka, R. Leipus, and G. Teyssière. 2003. “Rescaled Variance and Related Tests for Long ...
  • The asymmetric effects of crude oil prices and exchange rates on diesel prices for 27 European countries 

    Yuksel Haliloglu, E.; Berument, M. Hakan (Sage Publications India Pvt. Ltd., 2021-04-16)
    Many studies have examined the asymmetric effect of US dollar-denominated crude oil prices on petroleum product prices. The ‘rockets and feathers’ argument suggests that a crude price increase raises petroleum product ...
  • Exploring shock and volatility transmission between oil and Chinese industrial raw materials 

    Kirkulak-Uludag, B.; Safarzadeh, Omid (Elsevier, 2021-01-07)
    The main objective of this paper is to investigate the volatility spillover between oil prices and the Chinese industrial raw materials stock indices including oil, coal, iron and non-ferrous metals. In order to achieve ...
  • Bribing in team contests 

    Doğan, Serhat; Karagözoğlu, Emin; Keskin, K.; Sağlam, Çağrı (Elsevier, 2021-04-21)
    We study bribing in a sequential team contest with multiple pairwise battles. Allowing for asymmetries in winning prizes and marginal costs of effort, we present the conditions under which (i) a player in a team is offered ...
  • The economic impact of recession announcements 

    Eggers, A. C.; Ellison, M.; Lee, Sang Seok (Elsevier, 2021-03-19)
    The convention in the news media is to announce a recession if a country experiences two consecutive quarters of negative growth. We exploit the arbitrary threshold implied by this practice to identify the economic impact ...
  • Perseverance and suspense in tug-of-war 

    Karagözoğlu, Emin; Sağlam, Hüseyin Çağrı; Turan, A. R. (Elsevier, 2021-01-06)
    We study a tug-of-war game between two players using the lottery contest success function (CSF) and a quadratic cost (of effort) function. We construct a pure strategy symmetric Markov perfect equilibrium of this game, ...
  • Monetary policy surprises and exchange rate behavior 

    Gürkaynak, Refet S.; Kara, Hakan; Kısacıkoğlu, Burçin; Lee, Sang Seok (Elsevier BV, 2021-05)
    Central banks unexpectedly tightening policy rates often observe the exchange value of their currency depreciate, rather than appreciate as predicted by standard models. We document this for Fed and ECB policy days using ...
  • Bargaining, reference points, and limited influence 

    Kara, Tarık; Karagözoğlu, Emin; Özcan-Tok, E. (Birkhaeuser Science, 2021-06)
    We study the emergence of reference points in a bilateral, infinite horizon, alternating offers bargaining game. Players’ preferences exhibit reference dependence, and their current offers have the potential to influence ...
  • The impact of education on time spent in religious activities : evidence from Turkey 

    Akar, Betül; Ökten, Çağla (Routledge, 2021-04-15)
    This paper investigates the impact of increased education, due to an exogenous education reform, on time spent in religious activities by utilizing the Turkish Time Use Survey data. The education reform significantly rises ...
  • Fitting Vast Dimensional Time-Varying Covariance Models 

    Pakel, Cavit; Shephard, N.; Sheppard, K.; Engle, R. F. (Taylor & Francis, 2020-02-05)
    Estimation of time-varying covariances is a key input in risk management and asset allocation. ARCH-type multivariate models are used widely for this purpose. Estimation of such models is computationally costly and parameter ...
  • Taking PISA seriously: how accurate are low-stakes exams? 

    Akyol, Pelin; Krishna, K.; Wang, J. (Springer, 2021-06)
    PISA is seen as the gold standard for evaluating educational outcomes worldwide. Yet, being a low-stakes exam, students may not take it seriously resulting in downward biased scores and inaccurate rankings. This paper ...
  • Bounded unit root processes with non-stationary volatility 

    Göğebakan, Kemal Çağlar; Eroğlu, Burak Alparslan (Taylor & Francis Inc., 2021-02-08)
    This article concerns the unit root testing under nonstandard conditions for a time series process, such as having an innovation process with non-stationary variance and being limited inside an interval. These conditions ...
  • The Fisher effect on long-term U.K. interest rates in alternative monetary regimes: 1844-2018 

    Berument, Hakan; Froyen, R. T. (Routledge, 2021-02-28)
    The Fisher Effect is one of the most widely studied relationships in monetary economics. Previous studies have found little evidence of a Fisher effect in pre-World War I data for the United Kingdom. An explanation for ...
  • On capacity-filling and substitutable choice rules 

    Doğan, Battal; Doğan, Serhat; Yıldız, Kemal (Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS), 2021-08)
    Each capacity-filling and substitutable choice rule is known to have a maximizer-collecting representation: There exists a list of priority orderings such that from each choice set that includes more alternatives than the ...
  • The difficulty of easy projects 

    Dziuda, Wioletta; Gitmez, A. Arda; Shadmehr, Mehdi (American Economic Association, 2021)
    We consider binary private contributions to public good projects that succeed when the number of contributors exceeds a threshold. We show that for standard distributions of contribution costs, valuable threshold public ...
  • Wage inequality, unemployment and linkages: Do the multinational enterprises ride to the rescue? 

    Bayraktar Sağlam, B.; Sayek Böke, Selin (Edizioni Tracce, 2021-09-29)
    This paper aims to discuss the wage and unemployment effects of backward, horizontal and forward linkages established between MNEs and domestic firms in imperfect labor markets. The search and matching model allows us to ...
  • Building social cohesion in ethnically mixed schools: an intervention on perspective taking 

    Alan, Şule; Baysan, C.; Gumren, M.; Kubilay, E. (Oxford University Press, 2021-03-16)
    We evaluate the effect of an educational program that aims to build social cohesion in ethnically mixed schools by developing perspective-taking ability in children. The program is implemented in Turkish elementary schools ...
  • Odds supermodularity and the Luce rule 

    Doğan, Serhat; Yıldız, Kemal (Academic Press, 2021-03)
    We present a characterization of the Luce rule in terms of positivity and a new choice axiom called odds supermodularity that strengthens the regularity axiom. This new characterization illuminates a connection that goes ...

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