A comparison of artificial neural network and multinomial logit models in predicting mergers
Fescioglu Unver, N.
Journal of Applied Statistics
Taylor & Francis Group
Fescioglu-Unver, N., & Tanyeri, B. (2013). A comparison of artificial neural network and multinomial logit models in predicting mergers. Journal of Applied Statistics, 40(4), 712-720.
Please cite this item using this persistent URLhttp://hdl.handle.net/11693/13086
A merger proposal discloses a bidder firm's desire to purchase the control rights in a target firm. Predicting who will propose (bidder candidacy) and who will receive (target candidacy) merger bids is important to investigate why firms merge and to measure the price impact of mergers. This study investigates the performance of artificial neural networks and multinomial logit models in predicting bidder and target candidacy. We use a comprehensive data set that covers the years 19792004 and includes all deals with publicly listed bidders and targets. We find that both models perform similarly while predicting target and non-merger firms. The multinomial logit model performs slightly better in predicting bidder firms.
- Department of Management