Provider-User Differences in Perceived Usefulness of Forecasting Formats
Please cite this item using this persistent URLhttp://hdl.handle.net/11693/11279
Omega - International Journal of Management Science
- Department of Management 
This paper aims to examine potential di erences in perceived usefulness of various forecasting formats from the perspectives ofproviders and users ofpredictions. Experimental procedure consists ofasking participants to assume the role offorecast providers and to construct forecasts using di erent formats, followed by requesting usefulness ratings for these formats (Phase 1). Usefulness of the formats are rated again in hindsight after receiving individualized performance feedback (Phase 2). In the ensuing role switch exercise, given new series and external predictions, participants are required to assign usefulness ratings as forecast users (Phase 3). In the last phase, participants are given performance feedback and asked to rate the usefulness in hindsight as users ofpredictions (Phase 4). Results reveal that regardless ofthe forecasting role, 95% prediction intervals are considered to be the most useful format, followed by directional predictions, 50% interval forecasts, and lastly, point forecasts. Finally, for all formats and for both roles, usefulness in hindsight is found to be lower than usefulness prior to performance feedback presentation. ? 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Önkal, D., & Bolger, F. (2004). Provider–user differences in perceived usefulness of forecasting formats. Omega, 32(1), 31-39.
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