Provider-User Differences in Perceived Usefulness of Forecasting Formats
Omega - International Journal of Management Science
Önkal, D., & Bolger, F. (2004). Provider–user differences in perceived usefulness of forecasting formats. Omega, 32(1), 31-39.
Please cite this item using this persistent URLhttp://hdl.handle.net/11693/11279
This paper aims to examine potential di erences in perceived usefulness of various forecasting formats from the perspectives ofproviders and users ofpredictions. Experimental procedure consists ofasking participants to assume the role offorecast providers and to construct forecasts using di erent formats, followed by requesting usefulness ratings for these formats (Phase 1). Usefulness of the formats are rated again in hindsight after receiving individualized performance feedback (Phase 2). In the ensuing role switch exercise, given new series and external predictions, participants are required to assign usefulness ratings as forecast users (Phase 3). In the last phase, participants are given performance feedback and asked to rate the usefulness in hindsight as users ofpredictions (Phase 4). Results reveal that regardless ofthe forecasting role, 95% prediction intervals are considered to be the most useful format, followed by directional predictions, 50% interval forecasts, and lastly, point forecasts. Finally, for all formats and for both roles, usefulness in hindsight is found to be lower than usefulness prior to performance feedback presentation. ? 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
- Department of Management 
Showing items related by title, author, creator and subject.
Önkal, D.; Sayim, K.Z.; Gönül, M.S. (2013)Today's business environment provides tougher competition than ever before, stressing the important role played by information and forecasts in decision-making. The scenario method has been popular for focused organizational ...
Dirimtekin, Serra (Bilkent University, 1996)The objective of this study is to examine the effects o f feedback on financial forecasting. In particular, the effects o f simple outcome feedback and cahbration feedback as a type of perfonuance feedback on the accuracy ...
Benefits of forecasting and energy storage in isolated grids with large wind penetration – The case of Sao Vicente Yuan S.; Kocaman A.S.; Modi V. (Elsevier Ltd, 2017)For electric grids that rely primarily on liquid fuel based power generation for energy provision, e.g. one or more diesel gensets, measures to allow a larger fraction of intermittent sources can pay-off since the displaced ...